Oil Boom Boosted Social Mobility—for Men
A paper by Aline Bütikofer, Antonio Dalla-Zuanna and Kjell G. Salvanes shows that Norway’s oil boom increased economic mobility for men—but left women behind. The effects of this resource shock reshaped income dynamics across three generations.
When Norway struck oil in the North Sea, it transformed the national economy—and the future prospects of thousands of families. A new study reveals that men born in regions most affected by the oil boom were significantly more likely to move up the income ladder, especially those from poor backgrounds. Sons of low-income fathers in these areas were less likely to remain poor and more likely to reach the top income bracket.
Interestingly, this economic boost didn’t translate equally across genders. Women did not experience similar gains in intergenerational mobility, likely because they were underrepresented in high-paying oil-related jobs. The study found that the increase in mobility for men was driven by higher wages for vocational skills—not by more education.
Even more striking, the oil boom’s impact carried into the third generation. In high-oil regions, grandfathers’ earnings had little influence on their grandsons’ income, signaling a break in long-term income persistence. However, the grandchildren of these "mobility winners" were less educated—suggesting a trade-off between fast income gains and long-term investment in education.
The findings highlight how major economic shifts can create new opportunities—but also reinforce existing divides.