FIE403 Business Cycle Analysis and Macroeconomic Policies (E/N)

• Topics

  This course provides an introduction to selected parts of economic theory, quantitative methods, and empirical topics relevant for analyzing business cycles. Special emphasis is placed on monetary policy and the interaction between business cycles and financial markets. The course also discusses current issues in Norwegian and international economics.

  • Decomposition of macroeconomic time series (especially gross domestic product and industrial production) into trend growth and business cycle components.
  • Quantitative analysis of macroeconomic time series: seasonal adjustment and trend estimation.
  • Leading indicators and business cycle forecasting.
  • Monetary policy and interest rate setting.
  • Coordination between monetary and fiscal policy.
  • The interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic conditions.
  • Housing markets and the macroeconomy.
  • Labor markets and the business cycle.
  • Business cycle outlook for the Norwegian and international economy.
  • Productivity growth and economic development.
  • Sustainability of macroeconomic policies and challenges related to climate risk.

• Learning outcome

  In this course, you will learn how the economy is doing, how you can tell, and what the likely policy actions are. You will learn quantitative methods and gain empirical insights relevant to analyzing business cycles. A particular focus is directed to monetary policy and the interaction between business cycles and financial markets. A key feature of the course is the emphasis on present day-to-day developments in the global economy.

  Upon completion of the course, students can:

  Knowledge

  • Analyse business cycles and the interactions between macroeconomic developments and financial markets.
  • Discuss how monetary policy and business cycle events affect interest rates and stock markets.
  • Interpret business cycle indicators and macroeconomic development.
  • Analyze the scarring effect of business cycles on lifetime outcomes

  Skills

  • Analyse business cycle concepts and chronology.
  • Conduct a quantitative analysis of business cycles, including the decomposition of time series into trend, cycle, and seasonal components, as well as forecasts.
  • Apply theories of monetary and fiscal policy and interest rate setting.
  • Evaluate the current business cycle conditions and future developments.

  General competence

  • Analyse economic policy and business cycles.
  • Assess the business cycle environment for firms.
  • Assess the business cycle environment for individuals

• Teaching

  The course consists of lectures, guest lectures and project work in groups.

• Recommended prerequisites

  Basic knowledge about macroeconomics, finance and empirical methods from the bachelor programme.

• Compulsory Activity

  Mandatory assignment (approved/not approved).

  Assignment completed in groups of 2-5 students.

  Previously acquired course approvals are valid.

• Assessment

  4 hours individual digital school exam.

• Grading Scale

  A - F

• Computer tools

  R.

• Literature

  The course literature will consist of selected articles, research reports and book chapters, national budget, etc.

• Permitted Support Material

  One bilingual dictionary (Category I)

  All in accordance with Supplementary provisions to the Regulations for Full-time Study Programmes at the Norwegian School of Economics Ch.4 Permitted support material https://www.nhh.no/en/for-students/regulations and https://www.nhh.no/en/for-students/examinations/examination-support-materials