FIE403 Business Cycle Analysis and Macroeconomic Policies

• Topics

  In this course, you will learn how the economy is doing, how can you tell, and what are the likely policy actions. You will learn quantitative methods and empirical insights relevant to the analysis of business cycles. A particular focus is directed to monetary policy and the interaction between business cycles and financial markets. A key feature of the course is the emphasis on present day-to-day developments in the global economy.

  • The decomposition of real GDP in trend and business cycles, impulse- and propagation mechanisms.
  • Quantitative analysis of business cycles: Decomposition of cycles vs. trend (times series and filter techniques), seasonal adjustments, trend-forecasts.
  • Business cycles versus financial cycles.
  • Monetary policy and interest rate setting.
  • Coordination of monetary and fiscal policy.
  • Economic and financial indicators.
  • The interaction between financial markets and macroeconomic developments.
  • Business cycles and the labor market.
  • Macroeconomic developments and the housing- and real estate markets.
  • The response of labour markets during recessions.
  • The micro-level origins of business cycles.

• Learning outcome

  Knowledge

  Upon completion of the course, the student can…

  • Analyse business cycles and the interactions between macroeconomic developments and financial markets.
  • Discuss how monetary policy and business cycle events affect interest rates and stock markets.
  • Interpret business cycle indicators and macroeconomic development.
  • Analyze the scarring effect of business cycles on lifetime outcomes.

  Skills

  Upon completion of the course, the student can…

  • Analyse business cycle concepts and chronology.
  • Conduct a quantitative analysis of business cycles, including the decomposition of time series into trend, cycle, seasonal components, as well as forecasts.
  • Apply theories of monetary and fiscal policy and interest rate setting.
  • Evaluate the current business cycle conditions and future developments.

  General competence

  Upon completion of the course, the student can...

  • Analyze economic policy and business cycles.
  • Estimate the business cycle environment for firms.
  • Assess the business cycle environment for individuals.

• Teaching

  The course consists of lectures, guest lectures and project work in groups.

• Recommended prerequisites

  Basic knowledge about macroeconomics, finance and empirical methods from the bachelor programme.

• Required prerequisites

  Basic knowledge about macroeconomics, finance and empirical methods from the bachelor program.

• Compulsory Activity

  • Compulsory assignment (approved/not approved).
  • Participation in the monthly "Store Konjunkturanalyse Konkurranse" (DSKAK).

  Both the compulsory assignment and the DSKAK competition must be completed in groups of 2-3 students.

  Previously acquired course approvals are valid.

• Assessment

  Individual 4 hours digital school exam.

• Grading Scale

  A - F

• Computer tools

  R

• Literature

  The course literature will consist of selected articles, research reports and book chapters, national budget, etc.

• Permitted Support Material

  Calculator

  One bilingual dictionary (Category I)

  All in accordance with Supplementary provisions to the Regulations for Full-time Study Programmes at the Norwegian School of Economics Ch.4 Permitted support materialhttps://www.nhh.no/en/for-students/regulations/https://www.nhh.no/en/for-students/regulations/and https://www.nhh.no/en/for-students/examinations/examination-support-materials/https://www.nhh.no/en/for-students/examinations/examination-support-materials/