The Department of Economics invites you to a Macro, Risk and Sustainability Seminar with Jason Garred, University of Ottawa.
The share of Chinese goods in US imports has fallen sharply since 2018, as production for the US market has shifted from China to other countries. Does this relocation of production represent US-China ‘decoupling’? Or are other US trade partners playing growing roles as intermediaries in ongoing US-China economic relations? In this paper, we provide evidence of parallel shifts in the relationships of both the US and China with third-country ‘winners’ who have recently increased their US import market share. Specifically, we find that flows of Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced intermediate inputs have reoriented towards these ‘winners’ during the trade war period. This suggests that relocation of production from China to countries gaining US market share has involved capital and parts from China itself.